Are we doing enough? Rising to the scale of the climate change challenge

Flying has been an overwhelming force for good over the past 120 years. It has helped create a truly global community, fostering an appreciation for other places and cultures and opened up international trade. But it is now facing an existential crisis far greater than even the Covid-19 pandemic.

“This must be a decade of action on climate change,” says Ian Jopson, Head of Sustainable Operations at UK air traffic service, NATS. “It’s now life or death stuff. It really is that simple. We must act now before it’s taken out of our hands.”

Ian leads the team within NATS tasked with embedding action against climate change across the organisation, from influencing operational decisions to ensuring the business uses sustainable energy providers. Now, as the industry emerges from what has been a devastating two years, he believes the longer-term threat of planetary warming – and the need for urgency in tackling aviation’s contribution to it – should be top of the agenda.

An annual study for NATS by Ipsos - the Aviation Index - shows consistently, year after year that action on climate change is by far the public’s top priority for the industry. Not only that, but people are considering changes to their behaviour in light of climate anxiety. In 2022, 40% said they would consider no longer taking domestic flights, and 33% said they might start to limit their flying to reduce their environmental impact.

“There are two imperatives to this,” offers Jopson. “The moral one, that says decarbonising aviation is the right thing to do for the future health of our planet, and the business one that says we have to grasp the nettle if flying is to remain a form or transport people are still willing to take and enjoy.”

In 2020 the UK aviation industry signed up to achieving net zero by 2050, with ICAO set to debate the adoption of an international net zero target later this month. Noble sentiments, but is enough being done to achieve what are already hugely ambitious goals? “Honestly, right now no I think there is more we need to do. At COP26 I saw lots of industries making significant progress and frankly felt, as a ‘difficult to decarbonise’ industry, aviation has more to do compared to others.”

Even setting aside the urgent need to minimise global temperature rises, Jopson argues the industry could be heading for a public crisis of confidence. “How long before we become the equivalent to the tobacco industry? The public want a clean product – just look at the huge growth in electric vehicles. Those two imperatives have converged and it’s up to us all to act now.”

How long before we become the equivalent to the tobacco industry?

The industry is quite rightly pushing new technologies, most notably Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and hydrogen/electric aircraft, but Jopson argues these remain some time away from scalability at the current rate of development, especially for long haul travel.

“There is interesting, valuable work being done – in particular in the eVTOL space - but currently SAF is being produced in very small quantities. At the current rate, we’re talking the mid 2030s or even the 2040s before SAF and other power sources like hydrogen or batteries make a significant impact. The big question is: is 2040 too late, both for the planet and the on-going viability of our industry?”

At the current rate, we’re talking the mid 2030s or even the 2040s before SAF and other power sources like hydrogen or batteries make a significant impact.

What then is to be done in the face of such an enormous challenge?

“Firstly, governments need to support the SAF industry with price support mechanisms to foster the fledgling industry. There also needs to be a huge injection of investment in research and development to accelerate the rate of change. That of course should come in part from the industry, but we need to see governments stepping up to the challenge too if the net zero goals we’ve signed up to as nations are going to be achievable.”

Significant investment in research and development is needed to accelerate the rate of Sustainable Aviation Fuel development

In the meantime, Jopson sees air traffic management as the main game in town. “It has the levers that can be pulled for the rest of the 2020s. Nothing else can have an immediate impact. Deploying techniques and tools that improve the efficiency of air traffic operations coupled with the modernisation of airspace designs around the world can strip up to 5% of emissions and all through the use of existing technologies and concepts.”

Air traffic management has the levers that can be pulled for the rest of the 2020s. Nothing else can have an immediate impact.

Much of the UK’s airspace was designed in the 1960s for aircraft that people now only see in museums. “It’s like trying to drive a sports car around a busy city centre. You just won’t get out of second gear. We need to build an airspace structure that can unleash the potential – the fuel efficiency and performance - of modern aircraft.”

Last year NATS delivered its largest ever airspace change, introducing Free Route Airspace across Scotland and northern England in a move that it expects to save the equivalent CO2 generated by 3,500 households every single year. Elsewhere, tools like Intelligent Approach, cross border arrivals management and Target Time of Arrival can all help optimise airspace management and airport arrivals, helping to minimise the amount of time aircraft spend circling in fuel-thirsty holding stacks.

Since NATS introduced the Intelligent Approach arrivals spacing tool for Heathrow in 2015, it’s helped save 115,000 tonnes of CO2 a year and cut wind related flow management delays by 62%. It’s since gone live at Toronto and is due to come into service for Schiphol this winter.

“These are the kinds of things that can be implemented now, without any need for expensive ground-based technology, and can make a real difference in the shorter term before those bigger revolutions come to maturity.”

For NATS the sustainability journey started back in 2008. It was the first air traffic service provider in the world to have financial incentives – and penalties – agreed around its environmental performance. That’s measured using a unique tool called 3Di – or Three Dimensional Insight – that calculates not just the efficiency of the routing of every aircraft in UK airspace, but also its climb and descent phases.

Aircraft that get stepped climbs, indirect routes and end up in holding on arrival score poorly. Those that continuously climb and descend with a direct track from A to B score well. NATS made its 3Di tool freely available to the rest of the worldwide industry in 2019.

Understanding 3Di - Click the image above to view a larger version

“We knew that to truly get an idea of how efficient our airspace was – or wasn’t – we really needed that third dimension. Yes, direct routings are important, but so are smooth climbs and descents. Being able to pinpoint those hotspots has allowed us to make changes to our processes and procedures to remove those inefficiencies wherever we can.” The introduction of Free Route Airspace is the ultimate expression of that approach and NATS is now targeting a second deployment in 2023.

This all begs a fundamental question. If the climate crisis is as acute as Jopson argues – and the data certainly supports that view – should people fly less? Has the drive for ever greater capacity got to stop? “I would encourage everyone to consider the climate impact of all their activities and to look at alternatives, but flying is not the enemy here, carbon dioxide is.  Stopping flying and reversing all the freedoms and benefits we’ve enjoyed for over 100 years doesn’t feel like the answer to me.”

I would encourage everyone to consider the climate impact of all their activities and to look at alternatives, but flying is not the enemy here, carbon dioxide is.

“Ultimately, my personal view is that we’ll eventually all have to live within carbon budgets. That means we need to make what we do today as efficient as possible while we anticipate the radical innovations that will ultimately deliver the solution to the climate crisis.”